THE PRICE COMPOSITION & RISING FACTORS OF TUGNSTEN CHINA, 2017
PART VI OF X
Black Swan Event of Influencing Factors of Tungsten Price
September 4, 2017
This paper makes a superficial analysis on the production cost, macro strategic pricing, RMB price and psychological factors affecting the tungsten concentrate cost and price, but these are conventional market prediction factors that any tungsten product manufacturer and operator can grasp. Whether an enterprise or a person is successful in the field of tungsten products is often influenced not by these factors, but by the black swan event that goes beyond the logic of the general commercial, political and economic operation law.
Impact of the Black Swan Incident on International Gold Prices in this Century
What’s Black Swan Incident (Event)
Before the 17th century, Europeans believed that swans were white, but with the discovery of the first black swan in Australia, just as Copernicus theory overturned people's traditional posture, the previous historical experience completely collapsed. This is the so-called black swan incident. That is, unpredictable major and rare unexpected events may change and subvert everything.
The Black Swan is Beautiful, But the Black Swan Incident is a Nightmare for Many People
Black Swan Event refers to very unpredictable and unusual events, which usually cause negative reactions or even subversive changes in the market chain. "Black swan" Events generally meet three characteristics: they are unexpected, have a significant impact, and people often make up reasons for them afterwards to prove that they are interpretable and predictable. Black Swan widely exists in social politics, economy and our personal life, and such events may occur at any time, such as the September 11 incident in the United States, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, Brexit in the United Kingdom, etc. In the economic field, it also exists in the operation of financial institutions, stock markets and companies. For example, the Bank of Bahrain with a history of more than 200 years fell into a desperate situation in 1993 due to the failure of illegal futures speculation of a 28-year-old young man named Nick Leeson, and finally sold it for $1; twenty years later, it was "Everbright Oolong" on the morning of August 16, 2013 Within three minutes of the incident, the Shanghai Stock Index soared by more than 5%. After it was confirmed on the same day, the Shanghai stock Index closed down by 0.64%, causing heavy losses to stock market participants.
Black Swan Event in Nonferrous Metal
Black Swan Event in Tungsten Industry
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